SP500 Trading Strategy Update – February 04, 2026 – Bearish Trend Developing – System is Currently Invested (-0.8%)

Today’s price:O: 58.99 H: 59.20 L: 57.54 C: 58.37

Price is -0.9% down from previous close.

Despite a 1-day downtrend, the system is holding a position based on earlier signals.

The system entered a long position on Dec 31, 2025 at 58.83. As of today’s close, the price is 58.37 showing a gain of -0.8%.

SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

Closed Ops: 12 – Won: 11 Lost: 1
Profit Ratio: 7274%
System Quality Number: 3.3

Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 1941.0%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 91.7, with 11 wins and only 1 losses.

Volatility Analysis

Currently in Quadrant 1:

Volatility wave is currently in phase 1 — Downthrust Phase.

As of February 04, 2026, SPX fell -0.51%. The market is on the upper stage of the market cycle, showing confidence still dominates sentiment, and volatility is expanding.

© SPW · spwoodpecker.com