Tag: Systematic Investing

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – February 04, 2026 – Bearish Trend Developing – System is Currently Invested (-0.8%)

    Today’s price:O: 58.99 H: 59.20 L: 57.54 C: 58.37

    Price is -0.9% down from previous close.

    Despite a 1-day downtrend, the system is holding a position based on earlier signals.

    The system entered a long position on Dec 31, 2025 at 58.83. As of today’s close, the price is 58.37 showing a gain of -0.8%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,418 5,533
    OK n/a 91.7%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 1905.4 1941.0

    Closed Ops: 12 – Won: 11 Lost: 1
    Profit Ratio: 7274%
    System Quality Number: 3.3

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 1941.0%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 91.7, with 11 wins and only 1 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 1: Quadrant 1

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 1 — Downthrust Phase.

    As of February 04, 2026, SPX fell -0.51%. The market is on the upper stage of the market cycle, showing confidence still dominates sentiment, and volatility is expanding.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – January 22, 2026 – Upward Momentum Continues – System is Currently Invested (0.1%)

    Today’s price:O: 59.04 H: 59.26 L: 58.57 C: 58.88

    Price is 1.0% up from previous close.

    The current uptrend has been active for 2 days, and the system remains invested while the momentum persists.

    The system entered a long position on Dec 31, 2025 at 58.83. As of today’s close, the price is 58.88 showing a gain of 0.1%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,487 5,662
    OK n/a 91.7%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 1957.4 2012.4

    Closed Ops: 12 – Won: 11 Lost: 1
    Profit Ratio: 7274%
    System Quality Number: 3.3

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 2012.4%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 91.7, with 11 wins and only 1 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 4: Quadrant 4

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 4 — Exhaustion Zone.

    As of January 22, 2026, SPX rose +0.55%. The market is on the lower side of the cycle, pointing to cooling enthusiasm or early weakness, and price fluctuations are increasing.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – January 21, 2026 – SP500 Trend is Positive – Active Trade in Progress (-0.9%)

    Today’s price:O: 57.32 H: 58.86 L: 57.09 C: 58.28

    Price is 2.3% up from previous close.

    The current uptrend has been active for 1 days, and the system remains invested while the momentum persists.

    The system entered a long position on Dec 31, 2025 at 58.83. As of today’s close, the price is 58.28 showing a gain of -0.9%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,402 5,510
    OK n/a 91.7%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 1933.0 1967.1

    Closed Ops: 12 – Won: 11 Lost: 1
    Profit Ratio: 7274%
    System Quality Number: 3.3

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 1967.1%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 91.7, with 11 wins and only 1 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 4: Quadrant 4

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 4 — Exhaustion Zone.

    As of January 21, 2026, SPX rose +1.16%. The market is on the bottom stage of the cycle, where traders look for new balance, and price fluctuations are increasing.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – January 20, 2026 – Market Direction: Downward – Active Trade in Progress (-3.1%)

    Today’s price:O: 57.67 H: 58.22 L: 56.82 C: 56.99

    Price is -4.1% down from previous close.

    Despite a 1-day downtrend, the system is holding a position based on earlier signals.

    The system entered a long position on Dec 31, 2025 at 58.83. As of today’s close, the price is 56.99 showing a gain of -3.1%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,226 5,183
    OK n/a 91.7%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 1879.2 1865.6

    Closed Ops: 12 – Won: 11 Lost: 1
    Profit Ratio: 7274%
    System Quality Number: 3.3

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 1865.6%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 91.7, with 11 wins and only 1 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 4: Quadrant 4

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 4 — Exhaustion Zone.

    As of January 20, 2026, SPX fell -2.06%. The market is on the low phase of the market cycle, suggesting consolidation or mild stress, and price fluctuations are increasing.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – January 02, 2026 – Bullish Trend in Progress – Active Trade in Progress (-1.2%)

    Today’s price:O: 58.54 H: 58.74 L: 57.54 C: 58.10

    Price is 0.3% up from previous close.

    The current uptrend has been active for 9 days, and the system remains invested while the momentum persists.

    The system entered a long position on Dec 31, 2025 at 58.83. As of today’s close, the price is 58.10 showing a gain of -1.2%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,364 5,086
    OK n/a 100.0%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 1965.1 1874.3

    Closed Ops: 9 – Won: 9 Lost: 0
    Profit Ratio: 100%
    System Quality Number: 2.9

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 1874.3%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 100.0, with 9 wins and only 0 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 4: Quadrant 4

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 4 — Exhaustion Zone.

    As of January 02, 2026, SPX rose +0.19%. The market is on the lower side of the cycle, pointing to cooling enthusiasm or early weakness, and short-term swings are intensifying.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – December 30, 2025 – Bullish Trend in Progress – Currently Not Invested. – Buy on next Market Open.

    Today’s price:O: 58.89 H: 59.08 L: 58.74 C: 58.80

    Price is -0.3% down from previous close.

    The SP&500 has been in an uptrend for 7 days. However, the system has not entered a position yet.

    The system has issued a BUY order to be executed al Market Price on next day’s session open.

    The system does not hold a position at this time.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,448 5,281
    OK n/a 100.0%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 2000.1 1945.3

    Closed Ops: 9 – Won: 9 Lost: 0
    Profit Ratio: 100%
    System Quality Number: 2.9

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 1945.3%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 100.0, with 9 wins and only 0 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 4: Quadrant 4

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 4 — Exhaustion Zone.

    As of December 30, 2025, SPX fell -0.14%. The market is on the lower region of the volatility wave, hinting at fatigue among buyers, and price fluctuations are increasing.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – December 02, 2025 – Market Direction: Upward – System is Currently Invested (16.1%)

    Today’s price:O: 57.99 H: 58.32 L: 57.57 C: 57.93

    Price is 0.3% up from previous close.

    The current uptrend has been active for 5 days, and the system remains invested while the momentum persists.

    The system entered a long position on Aug 01, 2025 at 49.90. As of today’s close, the price is 57.93 showing a gain of 16.1%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,299 5,039
    OK n/a 100.0%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 2023.2 1934.2

    Closed Ops: 8 – Won: 8 Lost: 0
    Profit Ratio: 100%
    System Quality Number: 5.2

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 1934.2%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 100.0, with 8 wins and only 0 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 2: Quadrant 2

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 2 — Stabilization Stage.

    As of December 02, 2025, SPX rose +0.25%. The market is on the upper side of the cycle, suggesting persistent optimism among investors, and price action is becoming more orderly.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – November 21, 2025 – Bearish Trend Developing – Position Open – In the Market (-48.0%)

    Today’s price:O: 53.58 H: 55.16 L: 52.92 C: 54.26

    Price is 2.0% up from previous close.

    Despite a 5-day downtrend, the system is holding a position based on earlier signals.

    The system entered a long position on Aug 01, 2025 at 49.90. As of today’s close, the price is 54.26 showing a gain of 8.7%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 4,791 4,141
    OK n/a 100.0%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 1875.5 1643.3

    Closed Ops: 8 – Won: 8 Lost: 0
    Profit Ratio: 100%
    System Quality Number: 5.2

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 1643.3%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 100.0, with 8 wins and only 0 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 1: Quadrant 1

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 1 — Downthrust Phase.

    As of November 21, 2025, SPX rose +0.98%. The market is on the high phase of the cycle, where momentum remains positive, and market turbulence is picking up.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – November 21, 2025 – Bearish Trend Developing – Position Open – In the Market (-48.0%)

    Today’s price:O: 53.58 H: 55.15 L: 52.93 C: 54.26

    Price is 2.0% up from previous close.

    Despite a 5-day downtrend, the system is holding a position based on earlier signals.

    The system entered a long position on Aug 26, 2025 at 104.44. As of today’s close, the price is 54.26 showing a loss of -48.0%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 4,791 -2,496
    OK n/a 88.9%
    DrDwn 18.9% 52.7%
    Cagr 18.8 -11.8

    Closed Ops: 9 – Won: 8 Lost: 1
    Profit Ratio: 5856%
    System Quality Number: 3.0

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of -11.8%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 52.7 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 88.9, with 8 wins and only 1 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 1: Quadrant 1

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 1 — Downthrust Phase.

    As of November 21, 2025, SPX rose +0.98%. The market is on the high phase of the cycle, where momentum remains positive, and short-term swings are intensifying.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – October 28, 2025 – Upward Momentum Continues – System Holding a Position (13.5%)

    Today’s price:O: 118.59 H: 119.23 L: 117.83 C: 118.58

    Price is 0.5% up from previous close.

    The current uptrend has been active for 89 days, and the system remains invested while the momentum persists.

    The system entered a long position on Aug 26, 2025 at 104.44. As of today’s close, the price is 118.58 showing a gain of 13.5%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,436 2,691
    OK n/a 88.9%
    DrDwn 18.9% 8.5%
    Cagr 21.7 11.4

    Closed Ops: 9 – Won: 8 Lost: 1
    Profit Ratio: 6036%
    System Quality Number: 2.9

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 11.4%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 8.5 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 88.9, with 8 wins and only 1 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 2: Quadrant 2

    SPX 30-day cycle chart

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 2 — Stabilization Stage.

    As of October 28, 2025, SPX rose +0.23%. Volatility decreases while remaining positive — this may mark the start of a bullish leg. Price and volatility behave in line with normal expectations for this stage of the cycle.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

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