Tag: Quantitative System for Retail Investors

SP500 Trading Strategy Update – December 22, 2025 – SP500 Trend is Positive – Awaiting Re-entry Signal.

Today’s price:O: 58.48 H: 58.72 L: 58.27 C: 58.63

Price is 1.2% up from previous close.
The SP&500 has been in an uptrend for 2 days. However, the system has not entered a position yet.
The system does not hold a position at this time.
SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold
Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

Buy & Hold SPW

PNL 5,409 5,281

OK n/a 100.0%

DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%

Cagr 2007.3 1965.1

Closed Ops: 9 – Won: 9 Lost: 0
Profit Ratio: 100%
System Quality Number: 2.9

Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 1965.1%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 100.0, with 9 wins and only 0 losses.

Volatility Analysis

Currently in Quadrant 4:

Volatility wave is currently in phase 4 — Exhaustion Zone.

As of December 22, 2025, SPX rose +0.64%. The market is on the low phase of the market cycle, suggesting consolidation or mild stress, and volatility is expanding.

© SPW · spwoodpecker.com

December 22, 2025
SP500 Trading Strategy Update – December 09, 2025 – SP500 Trend is Positive – Position Open – In the Market (16.5%)

Today’s price:O: 58.15 H: 58.52 L: 58.05 C: 58.14

Price is -0.2% down from previous close.
The current uptrend has been active for 10 days, and the system remains invested while the momentum persists.
The system entered a long position on Aug 01, 2025 at 49.90. As of today’s close, the price is 58.14 showing a gain of 16.5%.
SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold
Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

Buy & Hold SPW

PNL 5,324 5,090

OK n/a 100.0%

DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%

Cagr 2013.4 1934.3

Closed Ops: 8 – Won: 8 Lost: 0
Profit Ratio: 100%
System Quality Number: 5.2

Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 1934.3%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 100.0, with 8 wins and only 0 losses.

Volatility Analysis

Currently in Quadrant 2:

Volatility wave is currently in phase 2 — Stabilization Stage.

As of December 09, 2025, SPX fell -0.09%. The market is on the higher region of the volatility wave, reflecting an extended rally, and market fluctuations are calming down.

© SPW · spwoodpecker.com

December 9, 2025
SP500 Trading Strategy Update – December 04, 2025 – SP500 Trend is Positive – Active Trade in Progress (17.1%)

Today’s price:O: 58.55 H: 58.57 L: 57.90 C: 58.41

Price is 0.2% up from previous close.
The current uptrend has been active for 7 days, and the system remains invested while the momentum persists.
The system entered a long position on Aug 01, 2025 at 49.90. As of today’s close, the price is 58.41 showing a gain of 17.1%.
SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold
Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

Buy & Hold SPW

PNL 5,361 5,156

OK n/a 100.0%

DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%

Cagr 2039.1 1969.4

Closed Ops: 8 – Won: 8 Lost: 0
Profit Ratio: 100%
System Quality Number: 5.2

Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 1969.4%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 100.0, with 8 wins and only 0 losses.

Volatility Analysis

Currently in Quadrant 2:

Volatility wave is currently in phase 2 — Stabilization Stage.

As of December 04, 2025, SPX rose +0.11%. The market is on the high phase of the cycle, where momentum remains positive, and market fluctuations are calming down.

© SPW · spwoodpecker.com

December 4, 2025
SP500 Trading Strategy Update – November 24, 2025 – SP500 Trend is Negative – System is Currently Invested (11.9%)

Today’s price:O: 54.86 H: 56.07 L: 54.68 C: 55.86

Price is 2.9% up from previous close.
Despite a 6-day downtrend, the system is holding a position based on earlier signals.
The system entered a long position on Aug 01, 2025 at 49.90. As of today’s close, the price is 55.86 showing a gain of 11.9%.
SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold
Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

Buy & Hold SPW

PNL 5,020 4,532

OK n/a 100.0%

DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%

Cagr 1948.1 1776.7

Closed Ops: 8 – Won: 8 Lost: 0
Profit Ratio: 100%
System Quality Number: 5.2

Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 1776.7%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 100.0, with 8 wins and only 0 losses.

Volatility Analysis

Currently in Quadrant 1:

Volatility wave is currently in phase 1 — Downthrust Phase.

As of November 24, 2025, SPX rose +1.55%. The market is on the upper side of the cycle, suggesting persistent optimism among investors, and price fluctuations are increasing.

© SPW · spwoodpecker.com

November 24, 2025
SP500 Trading Strategy Update – November 14, 2025 – Market Direction: Upward – Active Trade in Progress (8.2%)

Today’s price:O: 110.79 H: 114.24 L: 110.08 C: 112.99

Price is -0.1% down from previous close.
The current uptrend has been active for 102 days, and the system remains invested while the momentum persists.
The system entered a long position on Aug 26, 2025 at 104.44. As of today’s close, the price is 112.99 showing a gain of 8.2%.
SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold
Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

Buy & Hold SPW

PNL 5,085 4,878

OK n/a 88.9%

DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%

Cagr 20.0 19.2

Closed Ops: 9 – Won: 8 Lost: 1
Profit Ratio: 5856%
System Quality Number: 3.0

Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 19.2%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 88.9, with 8 wins and only 1 losses.

Volatility Analysis

Currently in Quadrant 4:

Volatility wave is currently in phase 4 — Exhaustion Zone.

As of November 14, 2025, SPX fell -0.05%. The market is on the lower side of the cycle, pointing to cooling enthusiasm or early weakness, and price fluctuations are increasing.

© SPW · spwoodpecker.com

November 14, 2025
SP500 Trading Strategy Update – October 21, 2025 – Market Direction: Upward – Position Open – In the Market (8.5%)

Today’s price:O: 113.43 H: 113.93 L: 112.97 C: 113.34

Price is -0.0% down from previous close.
The current uptrend has been active for 84 days, and the system remains invested while the momentum persists.
The system entered a long position on Aug 26, 2025 at 104.44. As of today’s close, the price is 113.34 showing a gain of 8.5%.
SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold
Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

Buy & Hold SPW

PNL 5,088 4,934

OK n/a 88.9%

DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%

Cagr 20.6 20.1

Closed Ops: 9 – Won: 8 Lost: 1
Profit Ratio: 5848%
System Quality Number: 3.0

Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 20.1%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 88.9, with 8 wins and only 1 losses.

Volatility Analysis

Currently in Quadrant 2:

Volatility wave is currently in phase 2 — Stabilization Stage.

As of October 21, 2025, SPX rose +0.00%. Volatility decreases while remaining positive — this may mark the start of a bullish leg. Price and volatility behave in line with normal expectations for this stage of the cycle.

© SPW · spwoodpecker.com

October 21, 2025
SP500 Trading Strategy Update – October 10, 2025 – Market Direction: Upward – Position Open – In the Market (2.9%)

Today’s price:O: 113.96 H: 114.53 L: 107.40 C: 107.49

Price is -5.4% down from previous close.
The current uptrend has been active for 77 days, and the system remains invested while the momentum persists.
The system entered a long position on Aug 26, 2025 at 104.44. As of today’s close, the price is 107.49 showing a gain of 2.9%.
SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold
Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

Buy & Hold SPW

PNL 4,678 4,197

OK n/a 88.9%

DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%

Cagr 19.4 17.6

Closed Ops: 9 – Won: 8 Lost: 1
Profit Ratio: 5848%
System Quality Number: 3.0

Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 17.6%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 88.9, with 8 wins and only 1 losses.

Volatility Analysis

Currently in Quadrant 1:

Volatility wave is currently in phase 1 — Downthrust Phase.

As of October 10, 2025, SPX fell -2.71%. Volatility increases on the upper side of the cycle — this can signal the beginning of a bearish leg. Price and volatility behave in line with normal expectations for this stage of the cycle.

© SPW · spwoodpecker.com

October 10, 2025

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