Tag: Down trend 2 days

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – February 13, 2026 – SP500 Trend is Negative – System Holding a Position (-2.4%)

    Today’s price:O: 57.38 H: 58.16 L: 56.69 C: 57.41

    Price is 0.1% up from previous close.

    Despite a 2-day downtrend, the system is holding a position based on earlier signals.

    The system entered a long position on Dec 31, 2025 at 58.83. As of today’s close, the price is 57.41 showing a gain of -2.4%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,314 5,290
    OK n/a 91.7%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 1854.2 1846.7

    Closed Ops: 12 – Won: 11 Lost: 1
    Profit Ratio: 7274%
    System Quality Number: 3.3

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 1846.7%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 91.7, with 11 wins and only 1 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 2: Quadrant 2

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 2 — Stabilization Stage.

    As of February 13, 2026, SPX rose +0.05%. The market is on the upper stage of the market cycle, showing confidence still dominates sentiment, and price action is becoming more orderly.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – February 05, 2026 – Bearish Trend Developing – System is Currently Invested (-3.4%)

    Today’s price:O: 57.38 H: 57.84 L: 56.53 C: 56.85

    Price is -2.6% down from previous close.

    Despite a 2-day downtrend, the system is holding a position based on earlier signals.

    The system entered a long position on Dec 31, 2025 at 58.83. As of today’s close, the price is 56.85 showing a gain of -3.4%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,229 5,148
    OK n/a 91.7%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 1844.2 1818.8

    Closed Ops: 12 – Won: 11 Lost: 1
    Profit Ratio: 7274%
    System Quality Number: 3.3

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 1818.8%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 91.7, with 11 wins and only 1 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 1: Quadrant 1

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 1 — Downthrust Phase.

    As of February 05, 2026, SPX fell -1.23%. The market is on the higher region of the volatility wave, reflecting an extended rally, and short-term swings are intensifying.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – December 18, 2025 – Downward Momentum Detected – System is on the Sidelines.

    Today’s price:O: 57.08 H: 57.61 L: 56.64 C: 56.90

    Price is 1.5% up from previous close.

    The S&P500 has been trending down for 2 days. The system remains out of the market, waiting for bullish confirmation.

    The system does not hold a position at this time.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,176 5,281
    OK n/a 100.0%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 1940.1 1975.1

    Closed Ops: 9 – Won: 9 Lost: 0
    Profit Ratio: 100%
    System Quality Number: 2.9

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 1975.1%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 100.0, with 9 wins and only 0 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 3: Quadrant 3

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 3 — Upthrust Phase.

    As of December 18, 2025, SPX rose +0.79%. The market is on the bottom stage of the cycle, where traders look for new balance, and the pace of movement is slowing.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – November 18, 2025 – Market Direction: Downward – Active Trade in Progress (4.4%)

    Today’s price:O: 109.62 H: 110.65 L: 107.59 C: 109.01

    Price is -1.7% down from previous close.

    Despite a 2-day downtrend, the system is holding a position based on earlier signals.

    The system entered a long position on Aug 26, 2025 at 104.44. As of today’s close, the price is 109.01 showing a gain of 4.4%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 4,824 4,378
    OK n/a 88.9%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 18.9 17.4

    Closed Ops: 9 – Won: 8 Lost: 1
    Profit Ratio: 5856%
    System Quality Number: 3.0

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 17.4%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 88.9, with 8 wins and only 1 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 4: Quadrant 4

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 4 — Exhaustion Zone.

    As of November 18, 2025, SPX fell -0.83%. The market is on the low phase of the market cycle, suggesting consolidation or mild stress, and price fluctuations are increasing.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

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