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A Trading System for the S&P500

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – November 19, 2025 – Market Direction: Downward – System is Currently Invested (5.1%)

    Today’s price:O: 109.20 H: 111.38 L: 108.53 C: 109.79

    Price is 0.7% up from previous close.

    Despite a 3-day downtrend, the system is holding a position based on earlier signals.

    The system entered a long position on Aug 26, 2025 at 104.44. As of today’s close, the price is 109.79 showing a gain of 5.1%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 4,879 4,476
    OK n/a 88.9%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 19.1 17.7

    Closed Ops: 9 – Won: 8 Lost: 1
    Profit Ratio: 5856%
    System Quality Number: 3.0

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 17.7%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 88.9, with 8 wins and only 1 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 1: Quadrant 1

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 1 — Downthrust Phase.

    As of November 19, 2025, SPX rose +0.38%. The market is on the higher region of the volatility wave, reflecting an extended rally, and volatility is expanding.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – November 18, 2025 – Market Direction: Downward – Active Trade in Progress (4.4%)

    Today’s price:O: 109.62 H: 110.65 L: 107.59 C: 109.01

    Price is -1.7% down from previous close.

    Despite a 2-day downtrend, the system is holding a position based on earlier signals.

    The system entered a long position on Aug 26, 2025 at 104.44. As of today’s close, the price is 109.01 showing a gain of 4.4%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 4,824 4,378
    OK n/a 88.9%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 18.9 17.4

    Closed Ops: 9 – Won: 8 Lost: 1
    Profit Ratio: 5856%
    System Quality Number: 3.0

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 17.4%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 88.9, with 8 wins and only 1 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 4: Quadrant 4

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 4 — Exhaustion Zone.

    As of November 18, 2025, SPX fell -0.83%. The market is on the low phase of the market cycle, suggesting consolidation or mild stress, and price fluctuations are increasing.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – November 17, 2025 – Bearish Trend Developing – System is Currently Invested (6.2%)

    Today’s price:O: 112.23 H: 113.58 L: 109.70 C: 110.87

    Price is -1.9% down from previous close.

    Despite a 1-day downtrend, the system is holding a position based on earlier signals.

    The system entered a long position on Aug 26, 2025 at 104.44. As of today’s close, the price is 110.87 showing a gain of 6.2%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 4,947 4,612
    OK n/a 88.9%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 19.4 18.2

    Closed Ops: 9 – Won: 8 Lost: 1
    Profit Ratio: 5856%
    System Quality Number: 3.0

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 18.2%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 88.9, with 8 wins and only 1 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 4: Quadrant 4

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 4 — Exhaustion Zone.

    As of November 17, 2025, SPX fell -0.92%. The market is on the bottom stage of the cycle, where traders look for new balance, and market turbulence is picking up.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – November 14, 2025 – Market Direction: Upward – Active Trade in Progress (8.2%)

    Today’s price:O: 110.79 H: 114.24 L: 110.08 C: 112.99

    Price is -0.1% down from previous close.

    The current uptrend has been active for 102 days, and the system remains invested while the momentum persists.

    The system entered a long position on Aug 26, 2025 at 104.44. As of today’s close, the price is 112.99 showing a gain of 8.2%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,085 4,878
    OK n/a 88.9%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 20.0 19.2

    Closed Ops: 9 – Won: 8 Lost: 1
    Profit Ratio: 5856%
    System Quality Number: 3.0

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 19.2%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 88.9, with 8 wins and only 1 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 4: Quadrant 4

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 4 — Exhaustion Zone.

    As of November 14, 2025, SPX fell -0.05%. The market is on the lower side of the cycle, pointing to cooling enthusiasm or early weakness, and price fluctuations are increasing.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – November 13, 2025 – SP500 Trend is Positive – Active Trade in Progress (8.3%)

    Today’s price:O: 115.98 H: 116.10 L: 112.57 C: 113.09

    Price is -3.3% down from previous close.

    The current uptrend has been active for 101 days, and the system remains invested while the momentum persists.

    The system entered a long position on Aug 26, 2025 at 104.44. As of today’s close, the price is 113.09 showing a gain of 8.3%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,093 4,890
    OK n/a 88.9%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 20.0 19.3

    Closed Ops: 9 – Won: 8 Lost: 1
    Profit Ratio: 5856%
    System Quality Number: 3.0

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 19.3%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 88.9, with 8 wins and only 1 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 4: Quadrant 4

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 4 — Exhaustion Zone.

    As of November 13, 2025, SPX fell -1.66%. The market is on the lower side of the cycle, pointing to cooling enthusiasm or early weakness, and short-term swings are intensifying.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – November 12, 2025 – Market Direction: Upward – Active Trade in Progress (12.0%)

    Today’s price:O: 117.50 H: 117.52 L: 116.16 C: 116.97

    Price is 0.1% up from previous close.

    The current uptrend has been active for 100 days, and the system remains invested while the momentum persists.

    The system entered a long position on Aug 26, 2025 at 104.44. As of today’s close, the price is 116.97 showing a gain of 12.0%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,347 5,378
    OK n/a 88.9%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 20.9 21.0

    Closed Ops: 9 – Won: 8 Lost: 1
    Profit Ratio: 5856%
    System Quality Number: 3.0

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 21.0%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 88.9, with 8 wins and only 1 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 3: Quadrant 3

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 3 — Upthrust Phase.

    As of November 12, 2025, SPX rose +0.06%. The market is on the lower region of the volatility wave, hinting at fatigue among buyers, and price action is becoming more orderly.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – November 11, 2025 – Bullish Trend in Progress – Active Trade in Progress (11.9%)

    Today’s price:O: 115.82 H: 117.07 L: 115.44 C: 116.85

    Price is 0.5% up from previous close.

    The current uptrend has been active for 99 days, and the system remains invested while the momentum persists.

    The system entered a long position on Aug 26, 2025 at 104.44. As of today’s close, the price is 116.85 showing a gain of 11.9%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,337 5,363
    OK n/a 88.9%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 20.9 21.0

    Closed Ops: 9 – Won: 8 Lost: 1
    Profit Ratio: 5856%
    System Quality Number: 3.0

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 21.0%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 88.9, with 8 wins and only 1 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 3: Quadrant 3

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 3 — Upthrust Phase.

    As of November 11, 2025, SPX rose +0.21%. The market is on the bottom stage of the cycle, where traders look for new balance, and price action is becoming more orderly.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – November 10, 2025 – SP500 Trend is Positive – Position Open – In the Market (11.4%)

    Today’s price:O: 114.95 H: 116.59 L: 114.19 C: 116.32

    Price is 3.1% up from previous close.

    The current uptrend has been active for 98 days, and the system remains invested while the momentum persists.

    The system entered a long position on Aug 26, 2025 at 104.44. As of today’s close, the price is 116.32 showing a gain of 11.4%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,305 5,296
    OK n/a 88.9%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 20.8 20.8

    Closed Ops: 9 – Won: 8 Lost: 1
    Profit Ratio: 5856%
    System Quality Number: 3.0

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 20.8%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 88.9, with 8 wins and only 1 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 3: Quadrant 3

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 3 — Upthrust Phase.

    As of November 10, 2025, SPX rose +1.54%. The market is on the bottom stage of the cycle, where traders look for new balance, and volatility is easing.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – November 07, 2025 – SP500 Trend is Positive – Position Open – In the Market (8.0%)

    Today’s price:O: 111.84 H: 112.89 L: 109.58 C: 112.83

    Price is 0.2% up from previous close.

    The current uptrend has been active for 97 days, and the system remains invested while the momentum persists.

    The system entered a long position on Aug 26, 2025 at 104.44. As of today’s close, the price is 112.83 showing a gain of 8.0%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,073 4,858
    OK n/a 88.9%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 20.1 19.3

    Closed Ops: 9 – Won: 8 Lost: 1
    Profit Ratio: 5856%
    System Quality Number: 3.0

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 19.3%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 88.9, with 8 wins and only 1 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 3: Quadrant 3

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 3 — Upthrust Phase.

    As of November 07, 2025, SPX rose +0.13%. The market is on the lower region of the volatility wave, hinting at fatigue among buyers, and the pace of movement is slowing.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – November 06, 2025 – Market Direction: Upward – Active Trade in Progress (7.9%)

    Today’s price:O: 114.78 H: 115.09 L: 112.14 C: 112.64

    Price is -2.2% down from previous close.

    The current uptrend has been active for 96 days, and the system remains invested while the momentum persists.

    The system entered a long position on Aug 26, 2025 at 104.44. As of today’s close, the price is 112.64 showing a gain of 7.9%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,054 4,834
    OK n/a 88.9%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 20.1 19.3

    Closed Ops: 9 – Won: 8 Lost: 1
    Profit Ratio: 5856%
    System Quality Number: 3.0

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 19.3%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 88.9, with 8 wins and only 1 losses.

    Volatility Analysis (Daily)

    Currently in Quadrant 3: Quadrant 3

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 3 — Upthrust Phase.

    As of November 06, 2025, SPX fell -1.12%.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

The content on this site is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. The strategies shared reflect personal research and experience and may not be suitable for others. Always consult an independent financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This blog does not offer financial services or maintain any contractual relationship with its readers.

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