Tag: S&P500 ETF Rotation Strategy

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – November 17, 2025 – Bearish Trend Developing – System is Currently Invested (6.2%)

    Today’s price:O: 112.23 H: 113.58 L: 109.70 C: 110.87

    Price is -1.9% down from previous close.

    Despite a 1-day downtrend, the system is holding a position based on earlier signals.

    The system entered a long position on Aug 26, 2025 at 104.44. As of today’s close, the price is 110.87 showing a gain of 6.2%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 4,947 4,612
    OK n/a 88.9%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 19.4 18.2

    Closed Ops: 9 – Won: 8 Lost: 1
    Profit Ratio: 5856%
    System Quality Number: 3.0

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 18.2%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 88.9, with 8 wins and only 1 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 4: Quadrant 4

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 4 — Exhaustion Zone.

    As of November 17, 2025, SPX fell -0.92%. The market is on the bottom stage of the cycle, where traders look for new balance, and market turbulence is picking up.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – November 13, 2025 – SP500 Trend is Positive – Active Trade in Progress (8.3%)

    Today’s price:O: 115.98 H: 116.10 L: 112.57 C: 113.09

    Price is -3.3% down from previous close.

    The current uptrend has been active for 101 days, and the system remains invested while the momentum persists.

    The system entered a long position on Aug 26, 2025 at 104.44. As of today’s close, the price is 113.09 showing a gain of 8.3%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,093 4,890
    OK n/a 88.9%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 20.0 19.3

    Closed Ops: 9 – Won: 8 Lost: 1
    Profit Ratio: 5856%
    System Quality Number: 3.0

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 19.3%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 88.9, with 8 wins and only 1 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 4: Quadrant 4

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 4 — Exhaustion Zone.

    As of November 13, 2025, SPX fell -1.66%. The market is on the lower side of the cycle, pointing to cooling enthusiasm or early weakness, and short-term swings are intensifying.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – October 24, 2025 – Upward Momentum Continues – Active Trade in Progress (10.3%)

    Today’s price:O: 115.03 H: 115.70 L: 114.77 C: 115.24

    Price is 1.6% up from previous close.

    The current uptrend has been active for 87 days, and the system remains invested while the momentum persists.

    The system entered a long position on Aug 26, 2025 at 104.44. As of today’s close, the price is 115.24 showing a gain of 10.3%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,214 2,501
    OK n/a 88.9%
    DrDwn 18.9% 8.5%
    Cagr 21.0 10.7

    Closed Ops: 9 – Won: 8 Lost: 1
    Profit Ratio: 6036%
    System Quality Number: 2.9

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 10.7%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 8.5 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 88.9, with 8 wins and only 1 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 2: Quadrant 2

    SPX 30-day cycle chart

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 2 — Stabilization Stage.

    As of October 24, 2025, SPX rose +0.79%. Volatility decreases while remaining positive — this may mark the start of a bullish leg. Price and volatility behave in line with normal expectations for this stage of the cycle.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – October 13, 2025 – Upward Momentum Continues – System is Currently Invested (6.0%)

    Today’s price:O: 109.96 H: 111.27 L: 109.69 C: 110.75

    Price is 3.0% up from previous close.

    The current uptrend has been active for 78 days, and the system remains invested while the momentum persists.

    The system entered a long position on Aug 26, 2025 at 104.44. As of today’s close, the price is 110.75 showing a gain of 6.0%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 4,907 4,608
    OK n/a 88.9%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 20.2 19.1

    Closed Ops: 9 – Won: 8 Lost: 1
    Profit Ratio: 5848%
    System Quality Number: 3.0

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 19.1%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 88.9, with 8 wins and only 1 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 1: Quadrant 1

    SPX 30-day cycle chart

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 1 — Downthrust Phase.

    As of October 13, 2025, SPX fell +1.56%. Volatility increases on the upper side of the cycle — this can signal the beginning of a bearish leg. Price and volatility behave in line with normal expectations for this stage of the cycle.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – October 09, 2025 – SP500 Trend is Positive – System Holding a Position (8.8%)

    Today’s price:O: 114.48 H: 114.61 L: 113.03 C: 113.67

    Price is -0.6% down from previous close.

    The current uptrend has been active for 76 days, and the system remains invested while the momentum persists.

    The system entered a long position on Aug 26, 2025 at 104.44. As of today’s close, the price is 113.67 showing a gain of 8.8%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,087 4,976
    OK n/a 88.9%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 21.0 20.6

    Closed Ops: 9 – Won: 8 Lost: 1
    Profit Ratio: 5848%
    System Quality Number: 3.0

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 20.6%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 88.9, with 8 wins and only 1 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 2: Quadrant 2

    SPX 30-day cycle chart

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 2 — Stabilization Stage.

    As of October 09, 2025, SPX fell -0.28%. Volatility decreases while remaining positive — this can signal the closing phase of a bearish leg initiated in quadrant 1. Even as volatility eases, prices remain under pressure — suggesting that sellers still dominate the short-term tone.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

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