Tag: Quantitative System for Retail Investors

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – February 13, 2026 – SP500 Trend is Negative – System Holding a Position (-2.4%)

    Today’s price:O: 57.38 H: 58.16 L: 56.69 C: 57.41

    Price is 0.1% up from previous close.

    Despite a 2-day downtrend, the system is holding a position based on earlier signals.

    The system entered a long position on Dec 31, 2025 at 58.83. As of today’s close, the price is 57.41 showing a gain of -2.4%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,314 5,290
    OK n/a 91.7%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 1854.2 1846.7

    Closed Ops: 12 – Won: 11 Lost: 1
    Profit Ratio: 7274%
    System Quality Number: 3.3

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 1846.7%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 91.7, with 11 wins and only 1 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 2: Quadrant 2

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 2 — Stabilization Stage.

    As of February 13, 2026, SPX rose +0.05%. The market is on the upper stage of the market cycle, showing confidence still dominates sentiment, and price action is becoming more orderly.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – January 28, 2026 – SP500 Trend is Positive – Active Trade in Progress (1.9%)

    Today’s price:O: 60.24 H: 60.37 L: 59.70 C: 59.95

    Price is -0.1% down from previous close.

    The current uptrend has been active for 6 days, and the system remains invested while the momentum persists.

    The system entered a long position on Dec 31, 2025 at 58.83. As of today’s close, the price is 59.95 showing a gain of 1.9%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,632 5,932
    OK n/a 91.7%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 1988.4 2081.5

    Closed Ops: 12 – Won: 11 Lost: 1
    Profit Ratio: 7274%
    System Quality Number: 3.3

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 2081.5%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 91.7, with 11 wins and only 1 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 1: Quadrant 1

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 1 — Downthrust Phase.

    As of January 28, 2026, SPX fell -0.01%. The market is on the upper stage of the market cycle, showing confidence still dominates sentiment, and volatility is expanding.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – January 13, 2026 – Bullish Trend in Progress – System is Currently Invested (1.7%)

    Today’s price:O: 60.16 H: 60.23 L: 59.42 C: 59.82

    Price is -0.4% down from previous close.

    The current uptrend has been active for 16 days, and the system remains invested while the momentum persists.

    The system entered a long position on Dec 31, 2025 at 58.83. As of today’s close, the price is 59.82 showing a gain of 1.7%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,600 5,900
    OK n/a 91.7%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 2015.1 2110.0

    Closed Ops: 12 – Won: 11 Lost: 1
    Profit Ratio: 7274%
    System Quality Number: 3.3

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 2110.0%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 91.7, with 11 wins and only 1 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 3: Quadrant 3

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 3 — Upthrust Phase.

    As of January 13, 2026, SPX fell -0.19%. The market is on the lower side of the cycle, pointing to cooling enthusiasm or early weakness, and volatility is easing.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – January 12, 2026 – SP500 Trend is Positive – Active Trade in Progress (2.1%)

    Today’s price:O: 59.31 H: 60.24 L: 59.31 C: 60.08

    Price is 0.3% up from previous close.

    The current uptrend has been active for 15 days, and the system remains invested while the momentum persists.

    The system entered a long position on Dec 31, 2025 at 58.83. As of today’s close, the price is 60.08 showing a gain of 2.1%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,630 5,965
    OK n/a 91.7%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 2027.3 2133.3

    Closed Ops: 12 – Won: 11 Lost: 1
    Profit Ratio: 7274%
    System Quality Number: 3.3

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 2133.3%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 91.7, with 11 wins and only 1 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 4: Quadrant 4

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 4 — Exhaustion Zone.

    As of January 12, 2026, SPX rose +0.16%. The market is on the bottom stage of the cycle, where traders look for new balance, and price fluctuations are increasing.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – December 31, 2025 – Upward Momentum Continues – Active Trade in Progress (-1.5%)

    Today’s price:O: 58.83 H: 58.85 L: 57.88 C: 57.92

    Price is -1.5% down from previous close.

    The current uptrend has been active for 8 days, and the system remains invested while the momentum persists.

    The system entered a long position on Dec 31, 2025 at 58.83. As of today’s close, the price is 57.92 showing a gain of -1.5%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,335 5,042
    OK n/a 100.0%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 1960.5 1864.3

    Closed Ops: 9 – Won: 9 Lost: 0
    Profit Ratio: 100%
    System Quality Number: 2.9

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 1864.3%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 100.0, with 9 wins and only 0 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 4: Quadrant 4

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 4 — Exhaustion Zone.

    As of December 31, 2025, SPX fell -0.74%. The market is on the bottom stage of the cycle, where traders look for new balance, and price fluctuations are increasing.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – December 22, 2025 – SP500 Trend is Positive – Awaiting Re-entry Signal.

    Today’s price:O: 58.48 H: 58.72 L: 58.27 C: 58.63

    Price is 1.2% up from previous close.

    The SP&500 has been in an uptrend for 2 days. However, the system has not entered a position yet.

    The system does not hold a position at this time.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,409 5,281
    OK n/a 100.0%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 2007.3 1965.1

    Closed Ops: 9 – Won: 9 Lost: 0
    Profit Ratio: 100%
    System Quality Number: 2.9

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 1965.1%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 100.0, with 9 wins and only 0 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 4: Quadrant 4

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 4 — Exhaustion Zone.

    As of December 22, 2025, SPX rose +0.64%. The market is on the low phase of the market cycle, suggesting consolidation or mild stress, and volatility is expanding.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – December 09, 2025 – SP500 Trend is Positive – Position Open – In the Market (16.5%)

    Today’s price:O: 58.15 H: 58.52 L: 58.05 C: 58.14

    Price is -0.2% down from previous close.

    The current uptrend has been active for 10 days, and the system remains invested while the momentum persists.

    The system entered a long position on Aug 01, 2025 at 49.90. As of today’s close, the price is 58.14 showing a gain of 16.5%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,324 5,090
    OK n/a 100.0%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 2013.4 1934.3

    Closed Ops: 8 – Won: 8 Lost: 0
    Profit Ratio: 100%
    System Quality Number: 5.2

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 1934.3%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 100.0, with 8 wins and only 0 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 2: Quadrant 2

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 2 — Stabilization Stage.

    As of December 09, 2025, SPX fell -0.09%. The market is on the higher region of the volatility wave, reflecting an extended rally, and market fluctuations are calming down.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – December 04, 2025 – SP500 Trend is Positive – Active Trade in Progress (17.1%)

    Today’s price:O: 58.55 H: 58.57 L: 57.90 C: 58.41

    Price is 0.2% up from previous close.

    The current uptrend has been active for 7 days, and the system remains invested while the momentum persists.

    The system entered a long position on Aug 01, 2025 at 49.90. As of today’s close, the price is 58.41 showing a gain of 17.1%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,361 5,156
    OK n/a 100.0%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 2039.1 1969.4

    Closed Ops: 8 – Won: 8 Lost: 0
    Profit Ratio: 100%
    System Quality Number: 5.2

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 1969.4%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 100.0, with 8 wins and only 0 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 2: Quadrant 2

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 2 — Stabilization Stage.

    As of December 04, 2025, SPX rose +0.11%. The market is on the high phase of the cycle, where momentum remains positive, and market fluctuations are calming down.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – November 24, 2025 – SP500 Trend is Negative – System is Currently Invested (11.9%)

    Today’s price:O: 54.86 H: 56.07 L: 54.68 C: 55.86

    Price is 2.9% up from previous close.

    Despite a 6-day downtrend, the system is holding a position based on earlier signals.

    The system entered a long position on Aug 01, 2025 at 49.90. As of today’s close, the price is 55.86 showing a gain of 11.9%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,020 4,532
    OK n/a 100.0%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 1948.1 1776.7

    Closed Ops: 8 – Won: 8 Lost: 0
    Profit Ratio: 100%
    System Quality Number: 5.2

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 1776.7%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 100.0, with 8 wins and only 0 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 1: Quadrant 1

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 1 — Downthrust Phase.

    As of November 24, 2025, SPX rose +1.55%. The market is on the upper side of the cycle, suggesting persistent optimism among investors, and price fluctuations are increasing.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

  • SP500 Trading Strategy Update – November 14, 2025 – Market Direction: Upward – Active Trade in Progress (8.2%)

    Today’s price:O: 110.79 H: 114.24 L: 110.08 C: 112.99

    Price is -0.1% down from previous close.

    The current uptrend has been active for 102 days, and the system remains invested while the momentum persists.

    The system entered a long position on Aug 26, 2025 at 104.44. As of today’s close, the price is 112.99 showing a gain of 8.2%.

    SPW S&P500 Trading Strategy comparison vs. Buy and Hold

    Below, we compare the performance of SPW versus a Buy & Hold approach. Our SP500 Trading Strategy will trade SSO, while the Buy and Hold would trade any S&P500-based ETF such as SPY. The comparison starts on 11, Aug 2023

    Buy & Hold SPW
    PNL 5,085 4,878
    OK n/a 88.9%
    DrDwn 18.9% 16.0%
    Cagr 20.0 19.2

    Closed Ops: 9 – Won: 8 Lost: 1
    Profit Ratio: 5856%
    System Quality Number: 3.0

    Performance Summary: SPW Strategy vs. Buy & Hold

    SPW, our S&P500 Trading System continues to provide a high return rate of 19.2%, with less drawdown than a Buy & Hold approach: 16.0 SPW vs. 18.9 Buy & Hold. It currently maintains a win rate of 88.9, with 8 wins and only 1 losses.

    Volatility Analysis

    Currently in Quadrant 4: Quadrant 4

    SPX Daily Cycle

    Volatility wave is currently in phase 4 — Exhaustion Zone.

    As of November 14, 2025, SPX fell -0.05%. The market is on the lower side of the cycle, pointing to cooling enthusiasm or early weakness, and price fluctuations are increasing.

    © SPW · spwoodpecker.com

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